Track record · closed signal

Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +11.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CBSH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$52.04 Published $56.94 Target $57.96 Window close $60.92 Peak
$50.22 – $51.95Entry zone — fair-value band
$52.04Published — price the day we called it
$56.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$57.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close
+11.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$57.96
last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026
Peak price
$60.92
peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
21

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$56.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.22 – $51.95
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$52.04
published June 4, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Commerce Bancshares is viewed as a safer regional bank: it has plenty of liquid assets, insiders buying stock, and a recent gain tied to Visa that is being used to adjust investments. The company reports steady results and the share price sits near a price floor. Low trading volume and wider banking-sector interest-rate and credit worries make this a cautious setup rather than a strong momentum name.

Primary drivers

  • One-time Visa-related gain is being used to change the investment mix
  • Reinvesting the portfolio should help interest income over time
  • Ample liquid assets help limit how far the stock can fall
  • Insiders buying shares signals alignment with long-term goals

How it played out

CBSH: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published CBSH at $52.04 with a 10% short-term growth expectation and a $56.94 target. The thesis pointed to ample liquid assets, insider buying, steady results, and the Visa-related gain being used to adjust the investment mix. It also expected portfolio reinvestment to help interest income over time, while noting low volume and banking-sector worries.

The stock reached the target in 21 days. It later peaked at $60.92 on July 29, a 17.1% gain, then ended the window at $57.96 on September 2. The peak was above the target, and the closing price remained above it. The published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On June 29, Commerce Bank announced an agreement to acquire Nolan & Associates. On July 16, Commerce Bancshares reported second-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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