Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +3.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,119.53 Published $1,231.48 Target $1,160.08 Window close $1,292.65 Peak
$1,070.00 – $1,115.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,119.53Published — price the day we called it
$1,231.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,160.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

At window close
+3.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,160.08
last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026
Peak price
$1,292.65
peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
25

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,231.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,070.00 – $1,115.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,119.53
published June 4, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is a strong healthcare company because its diabetes and obesity medicines are doing very well and the team executes reliably. New partnerships with Sesame and Weight Watchers should make treatments easier to get. The stock has run up recently, which raises risk, and the smaller Germany investment shows possible policy exposure, so a pullback toward trend would be a cleaner opportunity.

Primary drivers

  • Partnerships expand how people find and get obesity care
  • Diabetes and obesity drugs are the main sources of growth
  • Consistent execution justifies a higher valuation
  • Lower Germany investment shows policy-related risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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