Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +3.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,070.00 – $1,115.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,119.53Published — price the day we called it

$1,231.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,160.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

At window close

+3.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,160.08

last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026

Peak price

$1,292.65

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,231.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,070.00 – $1,115.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,119.53

published June 4, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is a strong healthcare company because its diabetes and obesity medicines are doing very well and the team executes reliably. New partnerships with Sesame and Weight Watchers should make treatments easier to get. The stock has run up recently, which raises risk, and the smaller Germany investment shows possible policy exposure, so a pullback toward trend would be a cleaner opportunity.

Primary drivers

Partnerships expand how people find and get obesity care
Diabetes and obesity drugs are the main sources of growth
Consistent execution justifies a higher valuation
Lower Germany investment shows policy-related risk

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 10% growth from $1,119.53. The thesis pointed to diabetes and obesity medicines as the main growth sources, partnerships with Sesame and Weight Watchers as access drivers, and consistent execution as support for a higher valuation. It also cited policy risk around the smaller Germany investment.

The stock reached the $1,231.48 target in 25 days. It later peaked at $1,292.65 on August 19, a 15.5% gain. By September 2, it had fallen to $1,160.08, but it remained above the publication price. The thesis played out within the window and exceeded its stated target.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, Lilly reported that second-quarter revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion.

Lilly reports second-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full-year guidance, and highlights continued growth and pipeline progress

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals