Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +5.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$19.25 – $20.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$20.18Published — price the day we called it

$24.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$21.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$21.20

last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$24.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$19.25 – $20.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$20.18

published June 4, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic shows signs of stronger business performance: sales quality, good free cash flow and fatter silver profit margins. The stock fell recently and could bounce if silver prices settle. Still, swings in metal prices, exposure to Mexico and uneven past results limit confidence versus larger, steadier peers.

Primary drivers

Recent results showed healthy free cash flow and cleaner sales
Wider silver margins increase profit sensitivity to higher metal prices
A solid balance sheet reduces risk from metal price swings
The pullback creates a less crowded chance to re-enter at lower levels

How it played out

AG: rose 10%, but the 20% target was missed

Lyra published AG at $20.18 on June 4, with an expected gain of 20% and a $24.21 target. The thesis pointed to healthy free cash flow, cleaner sales, wider silver margins, a solid balance sheet and a recent pullback. It also noted metal price swings, exposure to Mexico and uneven past results.

AG reached its window high of $22.19 on August 28, a gain of 10%. It never reached the $24.21 target. The stock ended the window at $21.20 on September 2, still above the publication price. The thesis partially played out, but the expected gain was missed.

What happened during the window

On July 7, First Majestic announced an agreement to sell the San Martin Silver Mine for total proceeds of US$90 million. On July 30, the company reported that second-quarter silver and gold production had risen 3% and 2%, respectively, from the prior-year quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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