Track record · closed signal

Insulet Corporation (PODD) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — -1.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PODD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$145.00 – $153.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$149.99Published — price the day we called it

$187.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$172.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$148.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$148.14

last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026

Peak price

$172.92

peak on July 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$187.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$145.00 – $153.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$149.99

published June 4, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Insulet's main product, Omnipod, is selling steadily and the company keeps hitting its earnings targets. Upcoming ADA presentations and a software update give concrete short-term news that could help the stock. Price sits under its recent trend but buying activity is picking up, so the situation looks like an early recovery without needing to chase higher levels. Low trading volume tempers conviction.

Primary drivers

Steady demand for Omnipod as more people use diabetes devices
ADA presentations provide near-term clinical news
Wider sensor compatibility expands the product's usefulness
Earnings consistently beating expectations supports confidence

How it played out

PODD: rose 15.3% but missed the target

Lyra published PODD at $149.99 with an expected gain of 25% and a target of $187.48. The thesis pointed to steady Omnipod demand, presentations at the ADA meeting, wider sensor compatibility, and a record of earnings beating expectations. Low trading volume tempered confidence.

The price rose to a peak of $172.92 on July 28, a gain of 15.3%. It stayed below the target throughout the measurement window. By September 2, it had fallen to $148.14. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the expected gain and target were missed.

What happened during the window

On June 6, Insulet reported clinical results for Omnipod 6 and a fully closed-loop system at the ADA meeting. On August 5, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $801.7 million, up 23.5%, and lowered parts of its full-year revenue outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PODD signals