Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +94.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$6.92 Published $8.17 Target $13.46 Window close $14.00 Peak
$6.40 – $7.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$6.92Published — price the day we called it
$8.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close
+94.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+102.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$13.46
last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026
Peak price
$14.00
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
20

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$8.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$6.40 – $7.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$6.92
published June 3, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna is a higher-risk turnaround in home healthcare that got clearer reasons to improve after buying Family First Homecare and raising its sales and profit outlook. Demand for home health and repeated earnings beats support the story, but heavy debt, small-company price swings, and weak short-term momentum mean the early gains look possible but fragile; better volume would increase confidence.

Primary drivers

  • Acquisition makes the company noticeably bigger in home healthcare
  • Higher sales and profit outlook clarifies benefits from the deal
  • Ongoing demand for home health helps keep sales steady
  • High debt raises the chance that problems could derail progress

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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