Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +94.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$6.40 – $7.05Entry zone — fair-value band

$6.92Published — price the day we called it

$8.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close

+94.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+102.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.46

last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026

Peak price

$14.00

peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.17

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$6.40 – $7.05

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$6.92

published June 3, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna is a higher-risk turnaround in home healthcare that got clearer reasons to improve after buying Family First Homecare and raising its sales and profit outlook. Demand for home health and repeated earnings beats support the story, but heavy debt, small-company price swings, and weak short-term momentum mean the early gains look possible but fragile; better volume would increase confidence.

Primary drivers

Acquisition makes the company noticeably bigger in home healthcare
Higher sales and profit outlook clarifies benefits from the deal
Ongoing demand for home health helps keep sales steady
High debt raises the chance that problems could derail progress

How it played out

AVAH: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published AVAH at $6.92 with an 18% expected gain and an $8.17 target. The thesis pointed to the Family First Homecare acquisition, a higher sales and profit outlook, steady home health demand, and repeated earnings beats. It also flagged high debt, small-company price swings, and weak short-term momentum.

The shares reached the target in 20 days. They later peaked at $14 on August 27, a 102.3% gain, and ended the window at $13.46. Both the peak and closing price were above the $8.17 target. The published thesis played out, and the measured result exceeded its stated expectation.

What happened during the window

On August 13, 2026, Aveanna reported second-quarter revenue of $670.5 million, up 13.7%, and raised full-year revenue guidance to more than $2.68 billion. On August 20, 2026, it announced a secondary offering of 15,000,000 shares by selling stockholders. Aveanna said it would receive no proceeds.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AVAH signals