Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +0% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$217.37 Published $256.19 Target $217.44 Window close $230.47 Peak
$204.52 – $219.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$217.37Published — price the day we called it
$256.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$230.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$217.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$217.44
last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026
Peak price
$230.47
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$256.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.52 – $219.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$217.37
published June 3, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA runs a leading AI hardware business with very strong profits and a healthy balance sheet. News about rising AI budgets and a strong chip sector helps demand, but many investors are already long and recent price strength isn't fully recovered. The near-term setup looks okay when bought on modest pullbacks.

Primary drivers

  • AI hardware demand is the main growth engine for the company
  • Overall chip-sector strength makes investors more willing to buy
  • High profit margins and a strong balance sheet reduce downside risk
  • Current pullback is less extreme than earlier rallies, making it more reasonable

How it played out

NVDA: the 18% target was missed

Lyra published the NVDA thesis on June 3, 2026, at 217.37 and expected 18% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence hardware, strength across the chip sector, high profit margins, a strong balance sheet, and a pullback that appeared less extreme than earlier rallies.

The price rose to a peak of 230.47 on August 27, a 6% gain. It stayed below the 256.19 target throughout the window. NVDA ended the period at 217.44 on September 1, close to its publication price. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the expected gain did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier. Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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