Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025 — +17.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$156.96 – $160.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$159.32Published — price the day we called it

$183.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$188.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$187.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+17.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$187.23

last close inside the window, ended October 1, 2025

Peak price

$188.13

peak on October 1, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$183.20

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$156.96 – $160.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$159.32

published July 3, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia’s data-center chips are still hard to get, keeping prices high. On July 3 the firm briefly neared a four-trillion-dollar value, proving big investors remain keen. Trading and price action look strong after the stock split. With August results and a possible larger share-buyback ahead, aiming for about $183 within three months seems reasonable even though the shares are already expensive.

Primary drivers

Big cloud firms order more chips than Nvidia can supply, locking in sales through 2026
Near $4T value on July 3 shows steady demand from large investors for this AI leader
Heavy buying and solid price gains since the split signal continued upward momentum
Mid-August earnings and a likely larger buyback could lift the stock over the next 90 days

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published NVDA at $159.32 on 2025-07-03 with a short-term target of $183.20 and expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to tight supply for data-center chips, demand from large investors after a near four-trillion-dollar value, strong trading after the split, August results, and a possible larger buyback.

Inside the window, NVDA reached the target in 28 days. The peak was $188.13 on 2025-10-01, with a peak gain of 18.1%. The stock ended the window at $187.23. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $46.74 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share, according to Investopedia. On 2025-08-27, The Guardian reported that NVIDIA projected third-quarter revenue of $54 billion and announced an additional $60 billion stock buyback.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals