Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +14.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.17 Published $37.89 Target $38.04 Window close $38.25 Peak
$31.32 – $33.29Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.17Published — price the day we called it
$37.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$38.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 78 days.

At window close
+14.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$38.04
last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026
Peak price
$38.25
peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
78

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.32 – $33.29
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.17
published June 3, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM Energy combines rising production plans, controlled capital spending, and recent earnings strength. An investor conference could clarify how management will allocate resources. The company still faces notable debt and depends on energy prices, and the stock has already moved above its near-term trend, so the short-term setup is constructive but secondary.

Primary drivers

  • Higher production outlook shows the business is gaining momentum
  • Steady capital spending helps forecast near-term cash flow
  • Investor conference gives a near-term check on strategy and priorities
  • Direct exposure to oil and gas benefits when prices stay firm

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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