Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +22.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$475.22 Published $551.26 Target $581.10 Window close $601.23 Peak
$460.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$475.22Published — price the day we called it
$551.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$601.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$581.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 43 days.

At window close
+22.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+26.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$581.10
last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026
Peak price
$601.23
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
43

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$551.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$460.00 – $485.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$475.22
published June 3, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard is a steady business that earns fees when people and companies move money. Recent news about more global payments and a pilot for instant settlement supports the company's role in cross-border payments. The stock pulled back and is cheaper short-term, but upward momentum hasn't returned, so confidence is cautious given a rich price level.

Primary drivers

  • Large global network helps keep transaction growth steady
  • Pilot for instant settlement boosts cross-border relevance
  • Network fees are high-margin and support reliable profits
  • Recent pullback makes short-term risk/reward more appealing

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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