Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +8.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,069.70 Published $1,208.76 Target $1,160.00 Window close $1,292.65 Peak
$1,030.00 – $1,075.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,069.70Published — price the day we called it
$1,208.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,160.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

At window close
+8.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,160.00
last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026
Peak price
$1,292.65
peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
23

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,208.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,030.00 – $1,075.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,069.70
published June 3, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is growing fast because more people are using its obesity and diabetes medicines, which is driving strong profits. New Mounjaro revenue shows the main product line keeps expanding. The stock trend looks healthy rather than overheated, but high price, company debt, and insiders selling mean short-term gains are likely limited. Overall, the company is high quality with balanced expectations.

Primary drivers

  • Mounjaro sales keep obesity business growing strongly
  • Recent results back premium growth expectations
  • Share trend looks healthy, not overly extended
  • Adds healthcare balance versus crowded tech trades

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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