Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — +8.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,030.00 – $1,075.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,069.70Published — price the day we called it

$1,208.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,160.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

At window close

+8.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,160.00

last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026

Peak price

$1,292.65

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,208.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,030.00 – $1,075.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,069.70

published June 3, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is growing fast because more people are using its obesity and diabetes medicines, which is driving strong profits. New Mounjaro revenue shows the main product line keeps expanding. The stock trend looks healthy rather than overheated, but high price, company debt, and insiders selling mean short-term gains are likely limited. Overall, the company is high quality with balanced expectations.

Primary drivers

Mounjaro sales keep obesity business growing strongly
Recent results back premium growth expectations
Share trend looks healthy, not overly extended
Adds healthcare balance versus crowded tech trades

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 23 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 13% growth from $1,069.70. The thesis pointed to rising use of obesity and diabetes medicines, continued Mounjaro sales growth, recent results, and a share trend that looked healthy rather than overly extended. It also noted the high price, debt, and insider selling as limits on short-term gains.

LLY reached the $1,208.76 target in 23 days. It later peaked at $1,292.65 on August 19, a 20.8% gain. The shares ended the window at $1,160, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, Lilly reported that second-quarter revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion and raised its full-year guidance.

Lilly reports second-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full-year guidance, and highlights continued growth and pipeline progress

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals