Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — +3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$11.80 – $12.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.43Published — price the day we called it

$14.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.86

last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$11.80 – $12.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.43

published June 2, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox is a short-term, higher-risk mining idea tied to a possible merger that could make it a bigger North American gold producer. News about worker and governance problems adds uncertainty. Recent price weakness makes the setup more attractive, but mixed results and negative price pressure mean gains are speculative in the near term.

Primary drivers

Merger could make the company a larger North American gold producer
Gold exposure gives potential to benefit from rising gold demand
Recent pullback creates a clearer short-term buying window
Worker and governance issues increase risk around integration

How it played out

EQX: shares rose 13.3%, but the target was missed

Lyra published EQX as a higher-risk short-term mining idea at $12.43, with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a possible merger that could create a larger North American gold producer, exposure to gold demand, and a recent pullback. It also cited worker and governance issues as risks to integration.

Inside the window, EQX rose to a peak of $14.08 on August 25, a 13.3% gain. It stayed below the $14.67 target, so the target was never reached. The shares ended the window at $12.86, above the $12.43 publication price. The thesis partially played out, but missed its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold completed its business combination with Orla Mining. On August 5, 2026, the company reported its second-quarter results and increased its 2026 production guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals