Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — +92.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$6.60 – $7.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$6.98Published — price the day we called it

$8.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

At window close

+92.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+100.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.42

last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026

Peak price

$14.00

peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$6.60 – $7.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$6.98

published June 2, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna looks interesting after buying Family First Homecare and raising its full-year forecast. Recent results beat expectations and the stock has been sold off, creating a recovery setup. Debt and the challenge of combining businesses are meaningful, so confidence is moderate even though demand for home care is steady.

Primary drivers

Acquisition expands where the company can serve patients
Higher forecast supports the idea of business recovery
Home-based care tends to hold up in weaker economies
Debt load and merging operations make conviction cautious

How it played out

AVAH: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published AVAH at $6.98 with an $8.44 target and expected 21% growth. The thesis pointed to the Family First Homecare acquisition, a higher full-year forecast and steady demand for home-based care. It also identified debt and the work of combining operations as risks.

The price reached the target in 22 days. It later rose to $14 on August 27, a peak gain of 100.7%. AVAH ended the window at $13.42, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On August 13, 2026, Aveanna reported second-quarter revenue of $670.5 million and raised its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. On August 20, 2026, the company announced the pricing of a secondary common-stock offering.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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