Track record · closed signal

McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -8.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$21.00 – $22.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.10Published — price the day we called it

$26.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.38Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.16

last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026

Peak price

$22.38

peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$26.08

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$21.00 – $22.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.10

published June 2, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

McEwen is a small precious-metals miner that could move up quickly when metals rally, and its balance sheet looks stronger than peers because of a recent cash dividend from San Jose and outside interest in its Los Azules copper project. Thin trading and swings in quarterly results mean the upside is plausible but not certain.

Primary drivers

San Jose cash dividend gives more internal funding flexibility
Interest in Los Azules adds possible strategic options
Leverage to metals prices can create strong upside moves
Low trading volume and bumpy earnings limit conviction

How it played out

MUX: the 18% thesis did not play out

Lyra published MUX at 22.10 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to the San Jose cash dividend for funding flexibility, interest in Los Azules, and leverage to metals prices. It also cited thin trading and uneven quarterly results as limits on conviction.

MUX peaked at 22.38 on June 2, a gain of 1.3%. That was below the 26.08 target, which was never reached during the window. The price ended at 20.16 on August 31, below the 22.10 publication price. The expected 18% rise did not happen. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 5, McEwen reported second-quarter net income of $9.6 million and lowered its 2026 production guidance. On August 27, McEwen Copper completed a $240 million term loan for Los Azules.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MUX signals