Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$228.75 Published $269.61 Target $220.78 Window close $232.01 Peak
$217.49 – $229.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$228.75Published — price the day we called it
$269.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$232.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$220.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-3.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$220.78
last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026
Peak price
$232.01
peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$269.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$217.49 – $229.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$228.75
published June 2, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is still a main choice for short-term AI infrastructure exposure because strong demand from data centers, healthy profit margins and a solid balance sheet support the stock even though many investors already own it. Recent macro developments make the price more sensitive to interest-rate news. After a big run-up, the stock looks more attractive near established support than after rapid price jumps.

Primary drivers

  • Data-center spending on AI keeps driving revenue growth
  • Strong profit margins justify a higher valuation
  • A solid balance sheet reduces downside risk
  • Uncertain rate outlook means valuation must be cautious

How it played out

NVDA: the 18% growth thesis missed its target

Lyra published NVDA at $228.75 with an expected gain of 18% and a $269.61 target. The thesis pointed to data-center spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, strong profit margins, and a solid balance sheet. It also noted that uncertainty around interest rates called for caution on valuation.

The stock peaked at $232.01 on June 2, a gain of 1.4%. It stayed below the target throughout the window, so there was no day when the target was reached. NVDA ended the window at $220.78. The published thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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