Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025 — -2.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$94.46 – $98.44Entry zone — fair-value band

$97.06Published — price the day we called it

$111.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$99.14Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$94.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$94.97

last close inside the window, ended November 9, 2025

Peak price

$99.14

peak on August 13, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$94.46 – $98.44

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$97.06

published August 11, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab's price looks pushed down, but the bigger trend is still healthy. Investor mood is very positive, and signals that track how stretched prices are suggest a timely window to buy. If interest rates decline, that should steady profits from lending and may raise what investors are willing to pay. Over the next 3 months, a calm market could help shares recover.

Primary drivers

Price looks pushed down, yet investor mood stays very positive overall
Longer and shorter trends point the same way, adding strength
Falling rates could steady interest profits and lift share valuations
Money from many customer types helps keep results steady over time

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $97.06 on 2025-08-11 with expected growth of 15% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a price that looked pushed down while investor mood stayed very positive, aligned longer and shorter trends, possible help from falling rates, and steadier results from money coming from many customer types.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at $99.14 on 2025-08-13, a 2.1% gain. It stayed below the $111.30 target and ended at $94.97 on 2025-11-09. The thesis only partially played out. The stock rose early, but it never got there and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals