360 Finance Inc (QFIN) — closed signal from June 1, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 30, 2026 — -48.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published June 1, 2026
QFIN jumped sharply after much better profit and sales, but that quick rise makes buying now risky even though the stock looks cheap and trades easily. Earlier profit shortfalls, possible changes in China's rules, and sensitivity to the credit cycle increase the chance of a pullback over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Stronger profit and sales revived interest in China fintech
- Low price compared with peers could allow a re-rating if results hold
- Good trading volume reduces worry about illiquidity during swings
- Price has run up quickly, increasing likelihood of a near-term pullback
How it played out
QFIN: the 12% growth thesis missed
On June 1, Lyra expected QFIN to rise 12% from 17.03. The thesis pointed to stronger profit and sales, a low valuation relative to peers, and good trading volume. It also flagged the rapid run-up, earlier profit shortfalls, possible rule changes in China, and sensitivity to the credit cycle as pullback risks.
QFIN peaked at 17.25 on June 1, a gain of 1.3%. It stayed below the 19.07 target throughout the window. By August 30, it had fallen to 8.80. The published growth thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On August 25, 2026, Qfin reported second-quarter net revenue of RMB3,566.6 million and net income of RMB401.4 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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