Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 30, 2026 — -0.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$204.52 – $219.49Entry zone — fair-value band

$218.77Published — price the day we called it

$253.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$232.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$217.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$217.55

last close inside the window, ended August 30, 2026

Peak price

$232.01

peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$253.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$204.52 – $219.49

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$218.77

published June 1, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks strong because its AI computing business is growing fast, makes lots of profit, and the company has plenty of cash. New RTX Spark and N1X chips extend its story beyond data centers into AI PCs and edge devices. Near term, the stock's upside depends on momentum improving, so the situation favors weakness and later stabilization rather than immediate enthusiasm.

Primary drivers

New RTX Spark and N1X chips expand the AI product lineup beyond servers
Multiple demand paths: data centers, personal computers, and edge AI devices
Strong profits and cash on hand help absorb market swings better than peers
Recent oversold price action suggests a rebound if momentum steadies

How it played out

NVDA: the 16% growth thesis did not play out

Lyra published a 16% growth thesis from 218.77, with a target of 253.47. The thesis pointed to fast growth in artificial intelligence computing, strong profits and cash, new RTX Spark and N1X chips, broader demand across data centers, personal computers and edge devices, and the prospect of a rebound after weak price action.

The stock rose to 232.01 on June 2, a 6.1% peak gain, but stayed below the target throughout the window. It ended at 217.55 on August 30, below the publication price. The expected rebound was limited and did not hold. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier. The same day, NVIDIA and AWS announced plans to deploy 2 million additional NVIDIA GPUs across AWS infrastructure in 2027 and 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals