Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.50 Published $35.44 Target $36.62 Window close $38.25 Peak
$29.10 – $31.07Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.50Published — price the day we called it
$35.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 79 days.

Peak price
$38.25
peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+25.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
79
Window
May 31, 2026 – August 29, 2026

The thesis — published May 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.44
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.10 – $31.07
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.50
published May 31, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM shows a plausible rebound because recent news-higher production targets, merger scale, a dividend, and synergy goals-improves expected cash flow if oil and gas prices cooperate. Offsets are substantial debt, thin profits, and recent price weakness, so near-term gains rely on the stock stabilizing rather than a clear turnaround.

Primary drivers

  • Higher production guidance points to stronger operations after the merger
  • A dividend signals more visible cash flow and company discipline
  • Synergy targets suggest a path to better profit margins
  • High sensitivity to commodity prices and debt keeps downside risk elevated

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SM signals