Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.50 Published $35.14 Target $36.62 Window close $38.25 Peak
$28.61 – $31.07Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.50Published — price the day we called it
$35.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 79 days.

Peak price
$38.25
peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+25.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
79
Window
May 30, 2026 – August 28, 2026

The thesis — published May 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.14
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.61 – $31.07
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.50
published May 30, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM looks like a short-term rebound candidate: steady sales, a large Permian operation and news pointing to stronger production next year. The quarterly dividend supports returns and oversold trading helps a rebound chance. But high debt, weak profits and falling momentum make outcomes sensitive to oil and gas prices.

Primary drivers

  • Large Permian operations give clearer production visibility
  • Quarterly dividend provides support for shareholder returns
  • Improved commodity prices raise rebound chances
  • High debt increases overall financial risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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