Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.57 Published $35.53 Target $36.81 Window close $38.25 Peak
$29.10 – $31.07Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.57Published — price the day we called it
$35.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 81 days.

Peak price
$38.25
peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+25.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.81
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
81
Window
May 29, 2026 – August 27, 2026

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.10 – $31.07
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.57
published May 29, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM is a riskier energy pick that could recover in the next few months if oil and the sector stabilize and integration updates are positive. The company's Permian presence, new dividend, and planned merger savings support the case, but high debt and sensitivity to oil prices make the recovery less certain than for larger peers.

Primary drivers

  • Permian operations help steady production and cash flow visibility
  • New dividend signals a clearer focus on returning cash to owners
  • Planned merger savings could improve operations and margins
  • Recent oversold price could bounce if oil and sector calm down

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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