Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026 — -11.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$383.94 Published $429.75 Target $340.65 Window close $385.01 Peak
$369.56 – $385.54Entry zone — fair-value band
$383.94Published — price the day we called it
$429.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$385.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$340.65Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+0.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$340.65
last close inside the window, ended August 27, 2026
Peak price
$385.01
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$429.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$369.56 – $385.54
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$383.94
published May 29, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet offers large-scale exposure to artificial intelligence while staying diversified across search, YouTube, and cloud. A new Google-Blackstone compute deal creates a clear, practical boost for the cloud business by adding processing capacity. Profit from search and YouTube helps the company stay stable. Short-term strength is unclear and headlines or regulation could slow momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Google-Blackstone compute deal creates a clear cloud catalyst
  • More TPU capacity improves the company's cloud strength
  • Search and YouTube continue to generate steady cash
  • Current price action presents a calmer, measured setup

How it played out

GOOGL: the thesis did not play out

Lyra's published thesis expected a 12% rise from 383.94. The thesis pointed to the Google-Blackstone compute deal, added TPU capacity, and steady cash generation from search and YouTube. It also noted that short-term strength was unclear and that headlines or regulation could slow momentum.

The peak was 385.01 on May 29, below the 429.75 target. That was a 0.3% gain, and the target was never reached. GOOGL ended the window at 340.65 on August 27. The published thesis did not play out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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