Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026 — +5.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,030.00 – $1,090.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,115.26Published — price the day we called it

$1,237.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,292.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,176.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close

+5.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,176.10

last close inside the window, ended August 27, 2026

Peak price

$1,292.65

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,237.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,030.00 – $1,090.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,115.26

published May 29, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY looks set to keep growing because of strong weight-loss drug results, hopeful gene-therapy developments, and more insurance coverage for its obesity medicines. The company is executing well and customers are staying interested, but the stock has already climbed a lot. Short-term gains depend on how quickly the obesity drugs are adopted, future drug progress, and coverage updates.

Primary drivers

Strong weight-loss drug results that keep Lilly a leader
More insurance coverage making drugs affordable for patients
Promising gene-therapy and heart-metabolism drug prospects
Consistent sales and solid company execution supporting demand

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published LLY on May 29, 2026, with an expected gain of 11%. The thesis pointed to strong weight-loss drug results, wider insurance coverage, promising gene-therapy and heart-metabolism prospects, and steady sales and execution supporting demand.

The stock reached the 1,237.93 target in 31 days. It later peaked at 1,292.65 on August 19, 2026, a 15.9% gain from publication. It ended the window at 1,176.10 on August 27, 2026, below the target but above the 1,115.26 publication price. The thesis played out fully inside the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On June 7, 2026, Lilly reported weight-loss results from analyses of more than 1,500 women in two trials. On August 5, 2026, the company reported that second-quarter revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion and raised its full-year guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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