Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026 — +21.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$152.51 Published $176.91 Target $185.93 Window close $186.86 Peak
$142.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$152.51Published — price the day we called it
$176.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$186.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$185.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

At window close
+21.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$185.93
last close inside the window, ended August 27, 2026
Peak price
$186.86
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
73

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$176.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$142.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$152.51
published May 29, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is getting attention because its AI work and defense-related projects are picking up, and recent drone funding talk helped interest. The company is doing well with both government and commercial customers, but the stock price is high and insiders have been active, so it fits a focused, momentum-driven approach more than a broad long-term holding.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand from defense contractors and AI adoption boosting interest
  • Strong government and commercial customer engagement and deliveries
  • News around drone funding has renewed investor focus on the sector
  • High price means careful, targeted exposure is preferable to broad owning

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 73 days

On May 29, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 16% growth from $152.51. The thesis pointed to rising demand from defense contractors and artificial intelligence adoption, strong engagement across government and commercial customers, and renewed interest tied to drone funding. It also noted the stock's high price.

PLTR reached the $176.91 target in 73 days. It rose as high as $186.86 on August 27, a peak gain of 22.5%. The measurement window ended that day with the stock at $185.93, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 3, 2026, Palantir reported that second-quarter revenue grew 93% year over year and U.S. commercial revenue grew 149%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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