Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from May 28, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 26, 2026 — -11.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$385.70 Published $431.73 Target $342.00 Window close $391.64 Peak
$375.55 – $389.53Entry zone — fair-value band
$385.70Published — price the day we called it
$431.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$391.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$342.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$342.00
last close inside the window, ended August 26, 2026
Peak price
$391.64
peak on May 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$431.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$375.55 – $389.53
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$385.70
published May 28, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines very large, profitable businesses-search, YouTube and cloud-with visible new growth drivers like AI and quantum. The stock has pulled back, so the short-term case is a careful rebound setup while momentum repairs rather than an aggressive buy on strength.

Primary drivers

  • AI, cloud and YouTube provide steady, long-term sales growth
  • Quantum and attribution news expand possible future growth triggers
  • High profits and cash flow help the stock withstand setbacks
  • Recent weakness could allow a disciplined rebound if momentum steadies

How it played out

GOOGL: the 12% rebound thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis from $385.70, with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to search, YouTube, cloud, artificial intelligence and quantum as growth drivers. It also cited high profits and cash flow as support, while recent weakness offered a rebound setup if momentum steadied.

GOOGL peaked at $391.64 on May 28, a 1.5% gain, and never reached the $431.73 target. It ended the window at $342 on August 26, below both the publication price and entry zone. The rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported that second-quarter revenue rose 24% and Google Cloud revenue rose 82%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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