Track record · closed signal

Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from May 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026 — +7.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$103.77 Published $117.40 Target $111.25 Window close $111.87 Peak
$99.47 – $103.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$103.77Published — price the day we called it
$117.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$111.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$111.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+7.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$111.25
last close inside the window, ended August 25, 2026
Peak price
$111.87
peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$117.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$99.47 – $103.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$103.77
published May 27, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Disney looks like a company beginning to recover: its price is reasonable, insiders have been buying, and recent profit reports beat expectations. Small marketing efforts like Toy Story partnerships may raise awareness but are limited. Recent weakness in the stock could allow a short-term rebound, though debt, slow profit growth and thin trading reduce conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Toy Story marketing lifts franchise visibility modestly
  • Parks, streaming and studios give multiple recovery paths
  • Earnings have recently come in ahead of expectations
  • Recent weak price action could allow a short-term rebound

How it played out

DIS: rose 7.8% but missed the target

Lyra published DIS at $103.77 with a 14% expected gain and a $117.40 target. The thesis pointed to modest Toy Story marketing, recovery paths across parks, streaming and studios, earnings ahead of expectations, and weak price action that could allow a short-term rebound. Debt, slow profit growth and thin trading reduced conviction.

Inside the window, DIS rose to a peak of $111.87 on August 24, a 7.8% gain. It stayed below the $117.40 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $111.25 on August 25. The rebound partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, Disney reported fiscal third-quarter results for the quarter that ended June 27, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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