Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — +7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$23.12 – $24.01Entry zone — fair-value band

$24.09Published — price the day we called it

$26.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$27.36Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$25.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

At window close

+7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$25.77

last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026

Peak price

$27.36

peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$26.34

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$23.12 – $24.01

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$24.09

published May 26, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National appears to be a steadier regional bank because it delivers consistent profits and its valuation is not demanding. There are few company-specific headlines, so future gains depend on steady business execution rather than big news. Short-term risks include local credit concerns, rising deposit costs and low trading activity, which limit upside over the next few months.

Primary drivers

Valuation looks reasonable for a regional bank
Steady profit delivery supports stability
Recent news gives little direct boost to the stock
Credit trends and deposit costs limit near-term upside

How it played out

ONB: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for ONB at $24.09, expecting 10% growth. The thesis pointed to a reasonable regional-bank valuation, steady profit delivery, and limited help from recent news. It also identified credit trends, deposit costs, and low trading activity as limits on near-term upside.

The target was reached in 37 days. ONB later peaked at $27.36 on August 4, a 13.6% gain within the window. It ended the period at $25.77, still above the $24.09 publication price but below the peak. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Old National reported second-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $249.4 million and diluted earnings of $0.65 per share. On August 12, 2026, its board declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.145 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ONB signals