Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — +8.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.00 – $12.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.63Published — price the day we called it

$15.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+8.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.76

last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026

Peak price

$13.91

peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.00 – $12.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.63

published May 26, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

EQX is a higher-risk bet on linking gold companies together. Recent news about combining with Orla and a higher price target from Stifel make the idea strategic for building a larger North American gold business. However, a recent earnings shortfall, uncertainty about combining the companies and weak price action mean a smaller, short-term placement is preferred despite a possible rebound.

Primary drivers

Merger with Orla creates a clear path to a larger gold company
Stifel raising its target draws renewed investor interest
Price looks oversold, so a short rebound is possible
Earnings miss and integration risk keep conviction limited

How it played out

EQX: rose 10.1% but missed the target

Lyra published EQX at 12.63 with a 15.41 target and expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to the planned Orla combination, Stifel's higher target, and an oversold price as reasons for a short rebound. It also cited an earnings miss and integration risk, which kept confidence limited.

EQX rose to a peak of 13.91 on August 24, a gain of 10.1%. It never reached the 15.41 target. The price ended the window at 13.76, still above the published price but below the target. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold completed its business combination with Orla Mining. On August 5, 2026, the company reported its second-quarter results and increased its 2026 production guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals