Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.75 – $20.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.77Published — price the day we called it

$23.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.02Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.83

last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026

Peak price

$22.02

peak on August 21, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.75 – $20.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.77

published May 26, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic offers a way to benefit if silver prices stay strong. The company is growing sales quickly, making profit, and has a healthier balance sheet than many peers. Recent media attention on silver miners and a recent price pullback create a near-term rebound possibility, though sensitivity to metal prices keeps risk elevated.

Primary drivers

Stronger gains if silver prices stay firm
Faster sales growth and improving profits
A healthier balance sheet than many peers
Recent coverage draws investor attention to the sector

How it played out

AG: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published AG at $19.77 with a 20% expected gain and a $23.73 target. The thesis pointed to firm silver prices, faster sales growth, improving profits, a healthier balance sheet than peers, and recent investor attention. It also noted the risk from metal-price sensitivity.

Inside the window, AG rose to $22.02 on August 21, a peak gain of 11.4%. It stayed below the target, then ended at $20.83 on August 24. The price finished above the publication price, but the expected gain did not arrive. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 7, 2026, First Majestic announced an agreement to sell the San Martin Silver Mine for US$90 million. On July 30, 2026, the company reported quarterly revenue of $415.5 million and net earnings of $109.4 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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