Track record · closed signal

IAMGold Corporation (IAG) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — +28.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.02 Published $20.59 Target $21.80 Window close $21.90 Peak
$16.40 – $17.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.02Published — price the day we called it
$20.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$21.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$21.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 86 days.

At window close
+28.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+28.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$21.80
last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026
Peak price
$21.90
peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
86

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.40 – $17.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.02
published May 26, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IAMGold looks inexpensive relative to its peers and recent results were better than expected, which suggests its operations are improving. The stock benefits when gold rises, giving extra upside. However, most recent news is about the mining sector generally, not the company, so clear near-term triggers are limited. Downward price pressure, insider selling and sensitivity to gold cap conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Leverage to rising gold with a valuation buffer
  • Better-than-expected recent results show improving operations
  • Price sitting under near-term trend gives a clear reference
  • Few company-specific news items limit near-term catalysts

How it played out

IAG: target reached in 86 days

Lyra published IAG at 17.02 with an expected gain of 21% and a target of 20.59. The thesis pointed to a valuation buffer, better-than-expected recent results, improving operations, and leverage to rising gold. It also noted limited company-specific triggers, downward price pressure, insider selling, and sensitivity to gold.

The price reached the target after 86 days. It peaked at 21.90 on August 24, a gain of 28.7%, and ended the window at 21.80. The peak was above the target, and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On June 1, 2026, IAMGold announced an updated mineral resource estimate for Côté Gold. On August 6, 2026, the company reported second-quarter production of 188,100 ounces of gold and revenue of $856.9 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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