Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — +22.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$35.57 Published $38.52 Target $43.67 Window close $45.17 Peak
$32.87 – $34.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$35.57Published — price the day we called it
$38.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$45.17Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$43.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close
+22.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$43.67
last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026
Peak price
$45.17
peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
24

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.87 – $34.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$35.57
published May 25, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline is a shipping company that has recently booked a lot of work hauling oil, and that has been driving strong cash flow because freight rates are high. The stock looks beaten down now, and its current value plus recent earnings make a short-term rebound possible, but rates can change fast if geopolitical tensions ease.

Primary drivers

  • High recent bookings that boost short-term cash flow and profits
  • Political or regional disruptions that keep demand for tankers unpredictable
  • Relatively low stock value compared with earnings supports rebound odds
  • Recent profit figures show the company benefits when rates are elevated

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 24 days

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis from $35.57, with expected growth of 13% and a $38.52 target. The thesis pointed to high bookings, elevated freight rates, recent profits, and a relatively low valuation. It also noted that regional disruptions made tanker demand unpredictable.

FRO reached the target in 24 days. It later rose to a $45.17 peak on August 19, a 27% gain. The shares ended the window at $43.67, still above the target. The published thesis played out and the price exceeded the expected move.

What happened during the window

On August 4, Frontline announced an agreement to sell two VLCCs built in 2017 for a total of $270 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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