Track record · closed signal

Maplebear Inc. (CART) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — +20.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CART price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$39.50 – $41.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$41.22Published — price the day we called it

$46.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$51.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$49.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close

+20.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+25.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$49.83

last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026

Peak price

$51.82

peak on August 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$46.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$39.50 – $41.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$41.22

published May 25, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Instacart looks like a steadier consumer play because it has solid cash and its advertising business is becoming more important. New self-serve ad tools and the Ace Hardware delivery tie-up are concrete events that could help growth. Trading is light and recent price action is cautious, so upside is plausible but not guaranteed in the near term.

Primary drivers

Self-serve Ads Manager lets retailers buy ads directly
Ace Hardware tie-up increases local delivery reach
Healthy cash position lowers consumer-cycle risk
More ad revenue can improve platform profits

How it played out

CART: target reached in 24 days

Lyra published CART at $41.22, expecting 14% growth to $46.99. The thesis pointed to self-serve ad tools, the Ace Hardware delivery tie-up, a healthy cash position, and the prospect that more ad revenue could improve platform profits. It also noted light trading and cautious price action.

CART reached the target in 24 days. It later peaked at $51.82 on August 20, a 25.7% gain, and ended the window at $49.83. The price remained above the target at the end. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 14, 2026, Instacart announced a same-day delivery partnership with Tractor Supply covering more than 2,400 stores. On August 6, 2026, the company reported 14% year-over-year growth in both gross transaction value and revenue for its second quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CART signals