Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo Inc (PEP) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$143.95 – $147.87Entry zone — fair-value band

$149.00Published — price the day we called it

$160.72Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$149.04Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$143.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 0% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+0%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$143.48

last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026

Peak price

$149.04

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$160.72

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$143.95 – $147.87

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$149.00

published May 25, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo is a stable consumer company with strong brands that tend to hold up when markets wobble. Announced snack price increases could help sales and profits if people keep buying. Short-term upside is limited because momentum is weak, but the stock can act as a defensive holding while interest rates and consumer habits remain uncertain.

Primary drivers

Strong snack and drink brands help keep customers coming back
Planned price increases can protect profit margins
Everyday consumer demand makes the stock less volatile
Consistent earnings show the business is steady over time

How it played out

PEP: the 9% growth thesis missed

Lyra published PEP at $149 with an expected 9% gain and a $160.72 target. The thesis pointed to strong snack and drink brands, planned price increases, everyday consumer demand, and consistent earnings. It expected those traits to support a defensive short-term holding despite weak momentum and uncertainty around interest rates and consumer habits.

PEP peaked at $149.04 on July 7, inside the measurement window, for a 0% peak gain. It never reached the $160.72 target. The stock ended the window at $143.48, below both the publication price and entry zone. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On June 8, 2026, PepsiCo announced a multi-year agreement with Gatik to deploy autonomous freight in its North American supply chain. On July 9, 2026, PepsiCo reported second-quarter net revenue of $24.2 billion, up 6.4%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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