Track record · closed signal

Ecovyst Inc (ECVT) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — -24.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ECVT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$13.20 – $13.90Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.81Published — price the day we called it

$15.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.14Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-24.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.44

last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026

Peak price

$14.14

peak on May 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$13.20 – $13.90

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.81

published May 25, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Ecovyst shows signs of a potential recovery: sales are improving, cash on hand is solid, and a recent acquisition could make future earnings clearer. The company noted Q1 earnings and a planned Calabrian deal that could speed a turnaround. However, losses, low trading activity and weak price momentum limit conviction; this is a watch-list setup over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

The Calabrian deal could expand the company into more specialty products
Recent quarterly update gives clearer signs that earnings may recover
Strong cash and liquidity reduce integration risk for the acquisition
Demand for industrial catalysts helps diversify revenue sources

How it played out

ECVT: the 10% thesis did not play out

Lyra published ECVT at $13.81 with an expected 10% rise to $15.19. The thesis pointed to improving sales, solid cash and liquidity, the planned Calabrian acquisition, a clearer earnings picture after the Q1 update, and demand for industrial catalysts. It also noted losses, low trading activity, and weak price momentum.

The price peaked at $14.14 on May 26, a 2.4% gain. It never reached the $15.19 target. By August 23, it had fallen to $10.44. The published thesis missed within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On June 30, Ecovyst completed its acquisition of Calabrian. On August 5, the company reported second-quarter sales growth of 42% to $250.0 million and raised its 2026 outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ECVT signals