Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from August 10, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 8, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 78 days.
The thesis — published August 10, 2025
Qualcomm looks ready for a bounce after a sharp slide. The company just reported sales up 10% and profit per share up 19%. A big tech fund added about $253M, suggesting more buyers than usual. If the price climbs back above its recent average, a 0-3 month push toward earlier price levels is possible. Investor mood is very cautious, which can set up rebounds. Main watch-outs: phone demand and China exposure.
Primary drivers
- Sales up 10% and profit per share up 19% last quarter, strong finish.
- A large tech fund bought about $253M, pointing to strong interest from investors.
- Very strong recent performance score, showing buyers are in charge.
- Shares look beaten down and sentiment is very cautious, setting up rebounds.
How it played out
QCOM: target reached in 78 days
Lyra published QCOM at 145.98 on 2025-08-10 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth toward 173.3. The thesis pointed to sales up 10%, profit per share up 19%, a large tech fund buying about $253M, strong recent performance, beaten-down shares, and very cautious sentiment as a possible rebound setup.
Inside the 2025-08-10 to 2025-11-08 window, the stock reached the target in 78 days. It peaked at 204.9 on 2025-10-27, above the target, with a 40.4% peak gain. It ended at 170.02, below the target. Verdict: the published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-07, Qualcomm announced an agreement to acquire Arduino, with Arduino keeping its brand, tools, and mission. On 2025-11-05, Qualcomm reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11.27 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.00 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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