Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from May 22, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026 — +8.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 41 days.
The thesis — published May 22, 2026
ONB looks like a relatively stable regional bank: profits, margins, share price level, and the dividend fit the risks of the banking cycle. New dividend news makes the income case clearer even without a big positive event. Trading activity is weak and recent price momentum is negative, so near-term timing is cautious. Overall, the story rests on income and steady performance rather than strong buying pressure.
Primary drivers
- Dividend news increases clarity on shareholder payouts
- Valuation stays modest for a regional bank
- Consistent profits suggest resilience through credit cycles
- Light trading and weak short-term momentum raise timing risk
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 41 days
Lyra published ONB at $23.82 with expected growth of 11% and a $26.27 target. The thesis pointed to clearer shareholder payouts from dividend news, modest valuation, and consistent profits. It also cited light trading and weak short-term momentum as timing risks.
ONB reached the target in 41 days. It later peaked at $27.36 on August 4, a 14.9% gain. The stock ended the window at $25.83, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On July 22, 2026, Old National reported second-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $249.4 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.65. On August 12, 2026, its board declared a quarterly common-stock dividend of $0.145 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.