Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from May 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026 — -27.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$195.72 Published $226.25 Target $142.07 Window close $249.38 Peak
$183.72 – $194.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$195.72Published — price the day we called it
$226.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$249.38Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$142.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 10 days.

At window close
-27.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$142.07
last close inside the window, ended August 20, 2026
Peak price
$249.38
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
10

The thesis — published May 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$226.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$183.72 – $194.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$195.72
published May 22, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle looks stronger because cloud demand tied to AI, rising NetSuite sales, and new optical partnerships give the company clearer infrastructure relevance. Its big software business and high profit margins support the case. The main limits are substantial debt and the stock being elevated, so near-term improvement likely needs a price pullback or a period of steadier action.

Primary drivers

  • AI-related cloud demand is increasing interest in Oracle
  • NetSuite revenue growth supports the apps business trend
  • Optical connectivity deals make Oracle more relevant for AI infrastructure
  • Large debt and an elevated stock price limit near-term conviction

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 10 days, then gains reversed

Lyra published ORCL at $195.72 with 16% expected growth and a $226.25 target. The thesis pointed to cloud demand tied to artificial intelligence, rising NetSuite sales, optical connectivity partnerships, a large software business, and high profit margins. It also noted substantial debt and an elevated share price.

ORCL reached the target in 10 days and peaked at $249.38 on June 1, a 27.4% gain. The target was met, and the price moved well beyond it inside the window. That gain did not hold. ORCL ended the window at $142.07. The published upside thesis played out early, but the result at the end of the window was a loss from the publication price.

What happened during the window

On June 10, 2026, Oracle reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $19.2 billion, up 21%, and cloud revenue of $9.9 billion, up 47%. The company also reported remaining performance obligations of $638 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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