Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks (ANET) — closed signal from May 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026 — +21.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$151.79 Published $179.11 Target $183.75 Window close $214.89 Peak
$145.00 – $153.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$151.79Published — price the day we called it
$179.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$214.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$183.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close
+21.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+41.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$183.75
last close inside the window, ended August 20, 2026
Peak price
$214.89
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
47

The thesis — published May 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$179.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$145.00 – $153.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$151.79
published May 22, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista is strong in networking for cloud and AI data centers, with no debt, solid profits, and consistent earnings beats. Industry recognition and new software and campus sales widen its market. Valuation looks high and recent price action is weak, so near-term setups favor a calm pullback instead of chasing fast gains.

Primary drivers

  • Industry recognition boosts enterprise sales credibility
  • Growing AI data-center demand lifts switch and router sales
  • No debt and strong cash flow support stability
  • Expanding into campus networking and AIOps adds revenue paths

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published ANET at $151.79 with an 18% expected gain and a $179.11 target. The thesis pointed to cloud and artificial intelligence data-center demand, debt-free finances and strong cash flow, industry recognition, and expansion into campus networking and operations software. It also noted a high valuation and weak recent price action.

The shares reached the target in 47 days. They later peaked at $214.89 on August 5, a 41.6% gain, before ending the window at $183.75. The close remained above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its published price objective.

What happened during the window

On August 4, Arista reported second-quarter revenue of $3.036 billion, up 37.7% from the prior year. It also reported diluted earnings per share of $0.95.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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