Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from May 22, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026 — +8.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$126.33 – $132.75Entry zone — fair-value band

$132.43Published — price the day we called it

$149.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$148.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$143.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+8.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$143.44

last close inside the window, ended August 20, 2026

Peak price

$148.97

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$149.98

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$126.33 – $132.75

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$132.43

published May 22, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead offers a defensive health-care holding backed by clear drug news instead of broad market moves. A positive regulatory opinion for Trodelvy plus upcoming oncology and cell-therapy trial updates could renew interest. Strong profit margins and repeated earnings beats help balance concerns about debt and insider selling, and recent heavy buying supports a short-term rebound case.

Primary drivers

Trodelvy regulatory nod boosts oncology momentum
Upcoming ASCO and EHA data could drive clinical news
High margins and repeated earnings beats show profitability
Lower sensitivity to the market adds defensive balance

How it played out

GILD: rose 12.5% but missed the target

Lyra published GILD at $132.43 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to a positive Trodelvy regulatory opinion, upcoming oncology and cell-therapy trial updates, strong profit margins, repeated earnings beats, and lower sensitivity to broad market moves.

The price peaked at $148.97 on August 19, a gain of 12.5%. It stayed below the $149.98 target and never reached it. GILD ended the window at $143.44 on August 20. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose and came close to the target, but the published objective was missed.

What happened during the window

On June 24, 2026, Gilead announced U.S. approval of Trodelvy for first-line treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. On August 4, 2026, the company reported second-quarter product sales excluding Veklury of $7.6 billion, up 10% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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