Track record · closed signal

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from August 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 8, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TXN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$185.56 Published $217.03 Target $160.55 Window close $207.24 Peak
$181.74 – $184.69Entry zone — fair-value band
$185.56Published — price the day we called it
$217.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$160.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 65% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$207.24
peak on August 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$160.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 10, 2025 – November 8, 2025

The thesis — published August 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$217.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$181.74 – $184.69
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$185.56
published August 10, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Texas Instruments looks like a strong chip maker whose share price has fallen more than seems fair. Apple plans to spend more in the US, and trade rules are uncertain, which can push more chip work back home and make supplies steadier. If the price climbs back above its recent average, it could bounce over the next 0-3 months toward prior price areas, while we watch factory spending and softer customer demand. Investor mood is still upbeat.

Primary drivers

  • Apple spending more in the US could lift chip demand and strengthen supply chains
  • More chip production moving to the US can help US suppliers win work
  • Shares look beaten down, yet investors remain optimistic about a rebound
  • A typical bounce back toward earlier trading ranges may unfold in the near term

How it played out

TXN: rebound peaked below the target

On 2025-08-10, Lyra published a short-term TXN thesis at 185.56 with expected growth of 18% toward 217.03. The thesis pointed to Apple spending more in the US, more chip production moving to the US, beaten-down shares, upbeat investor mood, and a possible bounce back toward earlier trading ranges.

Inside the window, TXN rose to 207.24 on 2025-08-22, a peak gain of 11.7%. That was a real rebound, but it stayed below 217.03 and never reached the target. By 2025-11-08, the stock ended at 160.55. The thesis partly played out, then failed to hold.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-21, Texas Instruments reported September-quarter earnings of $1.48 per share on revenue of $4.74 billion. It also gave December-quarter guidance of $1.26 per share on sales of $4.4 billion at the midpoint, according to Investor's Business Daily.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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