Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from May 21, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 19, 2026 — +14.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$124.36 – $129.29Entry zone — fair-value band

$129.08Published — price the day we called it

$148.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$148.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$147.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+14.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$147.60

last close inside the window, ended August 19, 2026

Peak price

$148.97

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$148.75

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$124.36 – $129.29

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$129.08

published May 21, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead blends steady, defensive cash from its HIV franchise with reasonable valuation and reliable earnings. Growing free cash flow, a patent extension for Biktarvy, and an analyst upgrade have shifted the short-term story positively. After a heavy selloff the stock shows cleaner signs of stabilizing over the next few months compared with peers.

Primary drivers

Biktarvy patent extension helps keep HIV sales steady over time
Analyst upgrade improves short-term sentiment for the stock
Consistent earnings and strong profit margins support cash flow
Lower sensitivity to market swings adds defensive portfolio value

How it played out

GILD: peak cleared the target, but gain stopped at 15.4%

Lyra published GILD at 129.08, expecting 16% growth over the short term toward 148.75. The thesis pointed to steady HIV cash flow, a Biktarvy patent extension, an analyst upgrade, consistent earnings, strong margins, and lower sensitivity to market swings after a heavy selloff.

Inside the window, GILD peaked at 148.97 on August 19, with a recorded peak gain of 15.4%. The peak was above the 148.75 target, but no target-hit day was recorded. It ended the window at 147.60, below the target. The thesis largely played out, though the stock did not deliver the full expected 16% gain.

What happened during the window

On June 8, Gilead and Merck reported that two Phase 3 trials of a once-weekly oral HIV treatment met their primary endpoints. On August 4, Gilead reported that second-quarter product sales excluding Veklury rose 10% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GILD signals