Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — -1.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$222.19 Published $262.18 Target $219.74 Window close $232.01 Peak
$215.00 – $225.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$222.19Published — price the day we called it
$262.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$232.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$219.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-1.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$219.74
last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026
Peak price
$232.01
peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$262.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$215.00 – $225.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$222.19
published May 20, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is the top leader for AI computing, selling chips and systems that companies need for big AI projects. Sales and profits are strong, but investors expect a lot from upcoming results, so the stock can swing more on news than steady progress. Momentum looks healthy, so this is a close-term watch opportunity after a sharp sector rally.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for AI computing drives sales growth
  • Leading data-center products justify a premium valuation
  • Upcoming quarterly report is a major event and risk
  • Positive price trend is tempered by lofty expectations

How it played out

NVDA: the target was not reached

Lyra published a short-term thesis for NVDA at $222.19, expecting 18% growth toward $262.18. The thesis pointed to strong demand for artificial intelligence computing, leading data-center products, healthy momentum, and a quarterly report that could bring larger price swings because expectations were high.

During the window, NVDA rose to a $232.01 peak on June 2, a 4.4% gain. It never reached $262.18. By August 18, it had fallen to $219.74. The price action supported only the direction of the thesis for a time, while the expected 18% move did not play out. Verdict: partially played out.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals