Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — +9.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$126.33 – $131.27Entry zone — fair-value band

$130.78Published — price the day we called it

$148.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$143.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$143.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+9.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$143.44

last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026

Peak price

$143.89

peak on August 18, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$148.12

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$126.33 – $131.27

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$130.78

published May 20, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead looks like a safer health-care stock that has been delivering steady profits and sits at a reasonable price. Positive analyst coverage helped sentiment even after the price target was lowered. Sales are growing more slowly, the company carries debt, and insiders have sold shares, so confidence is moderate for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Stable demand for health care helps limit big drops
Regular profit beats show steady company execution
Analyst support lifts sentiment despite a cut in target
Price is settling near a level that looks like support

How it played out

GILD: gained 10% but missed the target

Lyra published GILD at $130.78 and expected 14% growth to $148.12. The thesis pointed to stable health care demand, regular profit beats, analyst support despite a reduced price target, and the share price settling near support. Confidence was moderate for the next 0 to 3 months.

GILD rose to a peak of $143.89 on August 18, a gain of 10%. It never reached $148.12 and stayed below the target. The shares ended the window at $143.44. The thesis partially played out because the price rose, but the published growth expectation was missed.

What happened during the window

On June 8, 2026, Gilead and Merck reported that two Phase 3 trials of a once-weekly oral HIV treatment met their primary efficacy endpoints. On August 4, 2026, Gilead reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 10% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GILD signals