Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — -11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$388.78 Published $427.66 Target $344.20 Window close $393.88 Peak
$378.00 – $392.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$388.78Published — price the day we called it
$427.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$393.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$344.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$344.20
last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026
Peak price
$393.88
peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$427.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$378.00 – $392.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$388.78
published May 20, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a large, high-quality tech company with strong ad revenue, cloud services and growing AI work. Recent industry news supports continued AI and cloud investment where Google competes. Shares look recently low near support, but regulatory scrutiny and debates about near-term AI spending make short-term upside cautious and risks balanced.

Primary drivers

  • Search and YouTube generate steady cash that helps the business stay resilient
  • Cloud and AI infrastructure investments support long-term growth potential
  • Consistent earnings performance reinforces the company's quality profile
  • Recent weakness in the stock can lead to a short-term rebound opportunity

How it played out

GOOGL: the 10% growth thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 10% growth from 388.78. The thesis pointed to steady cash from Search and YouTube, cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure investment, consistent earnings, and recent weakness near support. It also identified regulatory scrutiny and debate about near-term spending as risks.

During the window, GOOGL rose to 393.88 on May 27, a peak gain of 1.3%. It never reached the 427.66 target. By August 18, it had fallen to 344.20. The thesis missed. The brief rise stayed well short of the expected 10% growth, and the shares ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%. Google Services revenue rose 15%, while Google Cloud revenue rose 82%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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