Track record · closed signal

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — -14.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$181.59 – $187.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$186.60Published — price the day we called it

$213.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$195.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$160.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$160.10

last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026

Peak price

$195.12

peak on July 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$213.18

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$181.59 – $187.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$186.60

published May 20, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AstraZeneca gives a defensive holding in health care with clear, company-specific regulatory wins. Recent U.S. approvals for label expansions and a new drug strengthen the near-term story and give concrete events to watch. The price is steady near short-term support, and low sensitivity to market swings helps offset riskier tech positions over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Recent approvals improve near-term outlook and news flow
Enhertu label expansion supports oncology revenue growth
Lower sensitivity to market moves provides defensive balance
Price action is steadier than higher-volatility technology stocks

How it played out

AZN: the thesis didn't play out

Lyra published AZN at 186.60 with an expected gain of 15%. The thesis pointed to recent approvals, an Enhertu label expansion, lower sensitivity to market moves, and steadier price action than higher-volatility technology stocks.

The price reached its window peak of 195.12 on July 2, a gain of 4.6%. It stayed below the 213.18 target throughout the window. By August 18, it had fallen to 160.10, below both the publication price and entry zone. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On July 27, AstraZeneca reported first-half total revenue of $30.7 billion, up 6% at constant exchange rates. On August 17, the company reported positive results from the Phase III DESTINY-Lung04 trial of Enhertu.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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