Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks (ANET) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — +35.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$142.50 Published $173.85 Target $193.18 Window close $214.89 Peak
$136.00 – $145.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$142.50Published — price the day we called it
$173.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$214.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$193.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close
+35.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+50.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$193.18
last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026
Peak price
$214.89
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
13

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$173.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.00 – $145.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$142.50
published May 20, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista supplies the networking gear that many cloud and AI customers need, so it benefits directly from growth in AI data centers. Recent results and guidance were strong, and upgrades to data centers support fair valuation. Shares fell back below a short-term trend line, offering a potential 0-3 month rebound, though valuation and insider sales keep conviction cautious.

Primary drivers

  • AI data-center networking demand is the main growth driver
  • No debt on the balance sheet adds financial strength
  • Recent guidance and valuation moves made the story more positive
  • The current pullback is cleaner than other extended AI trades

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 13 days

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis from $142.50, with expected growth of 22% and a target of $173.85. The thesis pointed to networking demand from artificial intelligence data centers, recent results and guidance, data-center upgrades, a debt-free balance sheet, and the pullback in the shares. Valuation and insider sales kept conviction cautious.

ANET reached the target in 13 days. It later peaked at $214.89 on August 5, a gain of 50.8% from the publication price. The shares ended the window at $193.18, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2026, Arista reported second-quarter revenue of $3.036 billion, up 37.7% from the prior year, and diluted earnings per share of $0.95.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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