Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares Inc (NWBI) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026 — +17% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.77 – $13.36Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.41Published — price the day we called it

$14.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

At window close

+17%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.69

last close inside the window, ended August 17, 2026

Peak price

$15.96

peak on July 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.77 – $13.36

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.41

published May 19, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI is a small regional bank where the main benefit is protecting value more than huge gains. Executives buying stock, a better-than-expected quarterly report, and healthier cash levels make the bank more credible. Trading is light and broader market interest is low, while loan quality and rising deposit costs are the main risks. Near term, the setup favors steadiness over a big re-rating.

Primary drivers

Executives buying stock signals confidence in the bank
Quarterly results beat forecasts and improved credibility
Valuation for regional banks gives some downside protection
Low trading volume and credit risks keep conviction limited

How it played out

NWBI: target reached in 23 days

Lyra published an 8% short-term growth thesis from $13.41, with a $14.30 target. The thesis pointed to executive stock purchases, quarterly results that beat forecasts, and regional-bank valuation as support. It also flagged light trading, credit risk, and rising deposit costs, so the expected setup favored steadiness over a large re-rating.

The shares reached the $14.30 target in 23 days. They later peaked at $15.96 on July 28, a 19% gain, and ended the window at $15.69. The price result exceeded the published target and expected growth. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 27, Northwest Bancshares reported second-quarter net income of $54 million, or $0.36 per diluted share. On August 17, it announced plans to redeem its outstanding 4.000% subordinated notes on September 15.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NWBI signals