Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares Inc (NWBI) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.41 Published $14.30 Target $15.69 Window close $15.96 Peak
$12.77 – $13.36Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.41Published — price the day we called it
$14.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

Peak price
$15.96
peak on July 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$15.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
23
Window
May 19, 2026 – August 17, 2026

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.77 – $13.36
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.41
published May 19, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI is a small regional bank where the main benefit is protecting value more than huge gains. Executives buying stock, a better-than-expected quarterly report, and healthier cash levels make the bank more credible. Trading is light and broader market interest is low, while loan quality and rising deposit costs are the main risks. Near term, the setup favors steadiness over a big re-rating.

Primary drivers

  • Executives buying stock signals confidence in the bank
  • Quarterly results beat forecasts and improved credibility
  • Valuation for regional banks gives some downside protection
  • Low trading volume and credit risks keep conviction limited

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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