Track record · closed signal

Range Resources Corp (RRC) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026 — -7.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

RRC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$42.40 Published $46.52 Target $39.36 Window close $43.20 Peak
$40.54 – $43.02Entry zone — fair-value band
$42.40Published — price the day we called it
$46.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$39.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$39.36
last close inside the window, ended August 17, 2026
Peak price
$43.20
peak on May 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$46.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$40.54 – $43.02
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$42.40
published May 19, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Range Resources offers exposure to Appalachian natural gas through low-cost fields and recent operating strength. Solid quarterly sales and profit plus board stability support the story. Valuation and earnings sensitivity help the upside, but low trading volume, leverage, and sensitivity to natural-gas prices limit the short-term opportunity. This looks tactical rather than a long-term core holding.

Primary drivers

  • Low-cost Appalachian gas gives upside when gas prices rise
  • Recent quarter showed steady sales and profits, boosting confidence
  • Relatively low price compared with peers cushions energy swings
  • Price action looks constructive but not extended to the upside

How it played out

RRC: the 10% thesis missed its target

Lyra published RRC at $42.40 with a 10% short-term growth thesis and a $46.52 target. The thesis pointed to low-cost Appalachian gas, steady recent sales and profits, a relatively low valuation versus peers, and constructive price action. It also noted low volume, leverage, and sensitivity to natural-gas prices.

Inside the window, RRC peaked at $43.20 on May 19, a 1.9% gain. It never reached $46.52. By August 17, it had fallen to $39.36, below the $42.40 publication price and below the $40.54 to $43.02 entry zone. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On July 21, 2026, Range reported second-quarter cash flow from operating activities of $235 million and production averaging 2.30 Bcfe per day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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