Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026 — +4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$50.92 Published $59.06 Target $53.20 Window close $60.49 Peak
$48.50 – $52.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$50.92Published — price the day we called it
$59.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$53.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

At window close
+4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+18.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$53.20
last close inside the window, ended August 17, 2026
Peak price
$60.49
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
72

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.50 – $52.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$50.92
published May 19, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EDU is a careful, selective idea rather than a broad bet on China. School demand is improving, the company has solid finances, and the price pullback could allow a rebound. But a hedge fund cut its stake and trading in its ADR is thin, so the upside is attractive but fragile in the near term.

Primary drivers

  • Recovering demand for tutoring and test-prep supports price recovery
  • Healthy cash and balance sheet reduce the chance of big problems
  • The price dropped enough to make upside more likely than downside
  • An institutional sell-off shows sentiment can shift suddenly

How it played out

EDU: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published EDU at $50.92 with an expected gain of 16% and a $59.06 target. The thesis pointed to recovering tutoring and test-prep demand, healthy cash and balance sheet, and a price pullback. It also noted that an institutional sell-off showed how quickly sentiment could shift.

The price reached $60.49 on August 3, a peak gain of 18.8%. It cleared the target in 72 days, then ended the window at $53.20 on August 17. The thesis played out within the measured period.

What happened during the window

On July 29, New Oriental reported fourth-quarter net revenue of $1,529.5 million, up 23.0% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EDU signals