Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks (ANET) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026 — +42.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$132.00 – $145.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$141.38Published — price the day we called it

$172.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$214.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$201.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close

+42.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+52%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$201.80

last close inside the window, ended August 17, 2026

Peak price

$214.89

peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$172.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$132.00 – $145.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$141.38

published May 19, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista is tied directly to AI networking growth and runs its business cleanly with no debt. Cloud customers remain steady, and management raised AI networking expectations, which helps visibility. There is a risk shipments could be pushed by chip shortages. The recent price drop makes the upside more attractive, but short-term negative momentum and a high valuation limit immediate conviction.

Primary drivers

Demand from AI-focused data centers drives near-term growth
No debt gives the company more protection in downturns
Higher AI networking guidance makes future sales clearer
Recent pullback likely tied to supply risk, not demand loss

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published ANET at $141.38 with an expected gain of 22%. The thesis pointed to demand from data centers focused on artificial intelligence, steady cloud customers, higher networking expectations, and a debt-free balance sheet. It also noted chip-shortage shipment risk, negative short-term momentum, and a high valuation.

ANET reached the $172.48 target in 14 days. It later peaked at $214.89 on August 5, a 52% gain, then ended the window at $201.80 on August 17. The price stayed above the target at the close. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On June 9, Arista announced the 7060XE7 Series, a 1.6T networking portfolio for rack-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure. On August 4, it reported second-quarter revenue of $3.036 billion, up 37.7% from the prior-year quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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