Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026 — -34.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$21.58 Published $24.82 Target $14.14 Window close $23.57 Peak
$20.50 – $22.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$21.58Published — price the day we called it
$24.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$23.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-34.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.14
last close inside the window, ended August 16, 2026
Peak price
$23.57
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$24.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$20.50 – $22.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$21.58
published May 18, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk is a short-term rebound idea, not a clear strong trend. The company has plenty of cash and healthy free cash flow, and recent results beat expectations. The recent price drop was partly due to higher interest rates. But downside risks include ongoing selling pressure, insiders selling, and a mismatch between market mood and the company's fundamentals.

Primary drivers

  • Large cash balance lowers risk to the balance sheet
  • Healthy free cash flow makes earnings more reliable
  • Price weakness tied to higher rates could set up a bounce
  • Platform still important for advertisers buying digital media

How it played out

TTD: rebound fell short and ended at $14.14

Lyra published TTD at $21.58 as a short-term rebound idea with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a large cash balance, healthy free cash flow, recent results that beat expectations, rate-linked price weakness, and the platform's importance to digital advertisers. It also noted selling pressure and insider selling as risks.

The price rose to a $23.57 peak on June 1, a 9.2% gain. It never reached the $24.82 target. By August 16, it had fallen to $14.14. The rebound only partly played out early in the window, and the full thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 6, 2026, The Trade Desk reported second-quarter revenue of $715 million, up 3% year over year, and net income of $64 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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